The economic rise of China is well documented. The Economist magazine recently predicted China's economy will surpass the U.S.'s by 2019 if this 'see-saw' (China rises as the U.S. declines) effect continues. China's educational wave, making vast improvements to their system of education, is another reminder of China's desire to regain its prominence as the "Middle Kingdom." A third wave, that of military expansion, has the potential for a build-up that may ultimately swamp America, but perhaps not in the way some expect. The threat may come from within.

According to Pentagon officials, China is not yet capable of competing militarily with the U.S. and are at least a generation or more behind the United States in military technology. Perhaps the real threat is what former WW II hero, general and later President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned about in his farewell presidential speech. As outgoing president, it was 50 years ago that Eisenhower warned the nation to beware of the "Military Industrial Complex" -- an "iron triangle" of intertwined relationships between government, the armed forces and the industrial sector that manufactures arms and profits from them.

A US downfall is possible

Americans must be careful that we do not allow recent China saber rattling, an expansion of their military prowess, evidenced by a testing of their first stealth jet and the construction of their first aircraft carrier, to draw us into an extended arms race that we can ill afford. Should we protect our national interests? Absolutely! However, the policy question moving forward will be: At what cost? And do we win the battle only to lose the war?

China has used its evolving economic strength to gain enormous strategic geopolitical advantage in a number of areas, spending the better part of its stellar economic rise to build its country: roads, bridges, air and seaports, bullet trains, schools, and universities. All have benefited the Chinese people and kept the Communist Party in power. All the while the U.S. has disinvested in our people and domestic priorities, allowed our infrastructure to decay and building up our military only to police the world, spending trillions overseas. It shows, too, as we struggle economically -- we are also crumbling, literally, from within.

Clearly China is also spending militarily as well as on domestic needs. If we try to keep pace with an arms race with China could we, like the USSR, go broke? Or will the American people become fed up with high unemployment, declining wages, aging infrastructure and a concentration of wealth in the hands of a few to demand changes in spending priorities?

As China grows militarily, there will be a continued cry from our military and congressional and defense contractors to reverse the beginning of reductions or at least slowing the increases in military expenditures here at home. Just as the old USSR bankrupted themselves in an escalating arms race, China could do the same to us.

Cooperation, competition or conflict?

Many in Washington with a Potomac view see China's growing military might as a strategic threat to the Pacific region if not our home land. There have already been hot words over the South China Sea, with the Pentagon claiming that China has an "operational" ballistic missile able to sink aircraft carriers at long range.

China is intent on catching up and surpassing the U.S. in space and high tech superiority, communications systems and cyberspace weaponry. The PLA has successfully demonstrated advanced anti-satellite weapons systems, blowing one of its satellites out of the sky for the world to see.

During his visit to the U.S., President Hu signed business deals totaling over $45 billion worth of American exports to China, supporting 235,000 American jobs in 12 states. One major agreement is a joint-venture in commercial aviation with G.E. This joint agreement/partnership with a state-owned Chinese company calls for the sharing of America's most sophisticated airplane electronics. While creating jobs at home today, this deal and could result in the technology being used by our Chinese counterparts to out-compete G.E. and other U.S. companies in the future by producing better and certainly cheaper consumer aviation products. The greater fear is these same technologies could help China fast forward militarily.

On the eve of President Hu's visit to the U.S., The Washington Post reported that Secretary Robert M. Gates is calling for stepped up investments "in a range of weapons, jet fighters and technology" in response to the Chinese military buildup. So before we even have begun the slowing of military expenditures, we have a rationale for expanding the industry. But can we afford both "bread and arms" when we have a deficit in excess of $14 trillion, borrowing 40 cent for every dollar spent and owing China over $900 billion?

A new nationwide poll by the Pew Research Center shows a major shift in how Americans perceive China. Americans now see Asia, not Europe, as the region of the world most important to U.S. interests. Yet by a margin of 60 percent to 27 percent, Americans think China's economic strength is more of a problem than its military might.

A bright future, but for who?

China watchers believe China is simply biding its time until it once again regains its rightful place as the "Middle Kingdom" of the world. They believe that China will not be as satisfied as when Zhou Enlai, Deng Xiaoping or President Hu Jintao claim to deal with the West "on a basis of equality and reciprocity."

China's nationalism will be the glue that will bind the country together as the 21st century unfolds. Riding high historically, China has seen no limit to its power and influence and, some claim, its arrogance. The country has also shown tremendous restraint when in the underdog position, curling up like a pill bug until the environment is safe to emerge again. The 21st century will witness the continuous uncurling of China.

Just as President's Obama and Hu begin a relationship, 2012 we will see President Hu begin to phase out of power from the Chinese Communist leadership scene passing the baton to his expected successor, a former provincial leader and descendant of high ranking revolutionary officials -- Xi Jinping, now China's vice president. Xi has been known to show impatience with foreigners wary of China's new power in the world. Yet he has extensive experience with the West and his daughter is a student at Harvard.

Could China's military build up be a Chinese Trojan fortune cookie? Will China drag the U.S. into greater military spending, borrowing money from China to do so, enabling them to stoke both their domestic and military spending thus accelerating the economic see-saw, with America occupying the declining position?

Our leaders and the American public need to watch this building storm, protect our national interests, and be careful that our own preparation for the coming waves do not become our undoing. As we continue this journey with a rising China, we will need leaders of great wisdom to make sure it is "harmonious" for us both. How our mutual leaders manage and lead in the 21st century will impact all of humanity.

Tom Watkins has a life long interest in China and has traveled extensively and worked there for over two decades. He serves on the University of Michigan's Confucious Institute, and the Detroit Chinese Business Association advisory board and is honorary professor and educational consultant to K-12 schools and a university in China. He served the citizens of Michigan as state superintendent of schools, 2001-05 and president and CEO of the economic council of Palm Beach County, FL., 1996-2001. He can be reached at: tdwatkins@aol.com

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Keywords: rise of China America’s fears about China The future of China China’s threat to US