Editor's note: The following translated article discusses a recent Xinhua article that attempted to "forecast" the performance of the Chinese national team in the upcoming 2012 London Olympic Games. The article is indicative of both the wave of national pride that is present during the Olympics season in all countries, as well as the quasi-friendly Power Politics-meets-Athletic Superiority game currently being played between China and the United States.

In a less than a month, the 2012 Olympic Games will officially kick off in London, and the most burning question in many people's minds (1.3 billion people, anyways) is: can China continue its hot-streak of taking home Olympic gold, now that the games are not being held in Beijing? Xinhua News Agency sure seems to think so. On June 27, Xinhua posted an article on what to expect from the Chinese national team in the upcoming Olympic Games in London.

China's Gunnin' for that No. 1 Spot

Xinhua, using a playful-albeit-competitive tone in the article, first acknowledges that it'll be rather difficult for China to duplicate the success of 2008 again, but also stresses that the United State's desire to maintain the Yi Chao Duo Qiang (一超多强) Olympic ranking structure of the past—where in it is the superpower (of athletics) along with several other great powers—is at an end, and that from now on, Chinese and United States athletes will be engaging each other as equals on the Olympic stage. As such, Xinhua is "forecasting" that China will take home 37 gold medals in London, narrowly surpassing the United States to claim the top spot on the medals table.  

The Xinhua article, entitled "The Prospective Medals Table at the London Olympic Games", explains that there were two main reasons that China was able to take home 51 gold, 21 silver and 28 bronze medals during the 2008 Olympic Games. First, the nation spend years searching out young talent, building state of the art training facilities, and unceasingly working to prepare their athletes to compete at the international level. Second, the obvious "home field advantage" benefits that come from hosting no doubt helped out immensely. As such, it's really no wonder that China both won more gold than any other country, and that it beat the United States by 15 gold medals (The United States won 36 gold medals, eight of which came courtesy of mer-man Michael Phelps). With this in mind, it's doubtful that China will be able to replicate such a blow-out victory in London—there are numerous category adjustments, rule changes and staff changes, not to mention it's not the host this time around.

Xinhua's Olympic "forecast"

If Xinhua's Olympic "forecast" for China is to be believed, then the Chinese national team should be taking home approximately 28 gold medals from the six key categories that it has traditionally performed well in (China won 36 gold medals in these categories in 2008).

First up, there's a lot of expectations riding on China's performance in the 15 shooting categories, with 23-year-old Yi Siling (易思玲) expected to start China's London gold rush off with a (literal) bang in the 10m riffle category on July 28.

China will no doubt be seeing gold in the diving categories as well, with Xinhua predicting that China's diving "dream team" will be taking home a minimum of seven gold medals.

Then there's the gymnastic categories to consider. While China most certainly will not be able to repeat its nine gold medal-winning performances of 2008, its main competitor, the Japanese team, shouldn't get too over-confident about their chances of a crushing upset either.

It's even less likely that China will be able to match its incredible eight-for-eight gold medal streak in the weightlifting categories at the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, although it's still possible that they'll take home five or six gold medals this time around.

Finally, let's not forget about the superstars on China's table tennis and badminton teams coming together again to bring home the gold; although it'd probably be too much to ask for a repeat of their seven gold medal-winning performances from four years earlier.

Can China top the United States?

Despite the obvious pro-China slant, (all nations get a bit nationalistic come Olympic time) the Xinhua article is also quick to acknowledge the impressive athletic displays by the US national team, which have led it to win more total medals than any other country for the last four consecutive Olympic Games, and that it's very unlikely that any country will be able to beat the United States' total medals count in London either.

The most frustrating thing about the Chinese national team right now, is that in all of the categories in which they excel they're already winning pretty much as many gold medals as possible. Meanwhile, for any of the other major categories, which other countries tend to dominate, there have thus far been no indicators that the Chinese national team is getting any better. Based on rough calculations, only if the Chinese national team is able to win at least 10 gold medals in categories traditionally outside of their comfort zone (or they're somehow able to bring in even more gold from the above-mentioned six categories), will they stand a chance to beat the United States.

The Xinhua article in conclusion offered their "forecast" of which countries will round out the top ten on the medals table this time around: China, the United States, Britain, Russia, Australia, Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea and France. And who knows, maybe these countries, which were all ranked in the top ten at the 2008 Olympics, might even be able to break 200 gold medals this time around –with 196 in Beijing, they came pretty close once already.

Source: Original Xinhua article 

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Keywords: China at the 2012 London Olympic Games Chinese national team Olympics China gold medals olympics