Editors Note: This op-ed article was written by Wu Bingbing, an associate professor at Peking University, in the Arab language and culture department. The author uses the context of the fall of Muammar Gaddafi and other recent changes in the Middle East to briefly discuss previous successes and failures of U.S. policy in the region, the new Chinese opportunities that are arising within the current political vacuum, and what China should do to make sure that Sino-Middle Eastern relations are both healthy and long-lasting. 

As the situation in the Middle East continues to change, for China, its strategic significance goes far beyond paying attention to the fall of Muammar Gaddafi.

The 2003 Iraq War, both impelled the rise of Iran as a regional political power, and also, as the political vacuum in Iraq continued to be filled by the U.S., proceeded to cause direct American confrontation with Iran. At this time, Egypt and Saudi Arabia formed the core of the pro-U.S. camp in the Middle East (along with Jordan and other Gulf Arab states), while Iran made up the core of the anti-U.S. camp (along with Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.), and ever since, these two ideological camps have been in sharp opposition with each other. "America’s pursuit of regional hegemony and the two opposing camps" became the basic strategic structure in the Middle East.

Yet the current on-going situation in the Middle East is breaking this previous strategic pattern. Turkey, which has both pro-U.S. and anti-U.S. camps, is making a bid to become the primary super-power in the Middle East. It is co-operating with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries (and is trying very hard to expand the authority of its voice on the Syrian problem; which is to say, it is trying to elbow out Iran). Turkey has also continued to keep its distance from the whole "Israel situation”. Likewise, a post-Mubarak Egypt is unlikely to repeat Mubarak's absolutist pro-U.S., pro-Israel stance, but in the short-term, also won't firmly walk the anti-U.S., anti-Israel path either. Instead, it will probably take a middle of the road approach. So, with Turkey and Egypt as its core, a new "centrist" camp is emerging.

The Iranian model is characterized by the implementation of "Islamic democracy", and it adopts an anti-U.S., anti-Israel stance in foreign affairs. The Turkish model is characterized by its constitutional framework and use of parliamentary politics to expand Islam as a political force, and it takes a neutral diplomatic stance in foreign affairs. With such an “open” platform, Turkey has achieved strong economic growth.

Now, anti-U.S. camps are based on the Iranian model, and the "centrist" camps are based on the Turkish model. Prior to recent events in the Middle East, pro-U.S. camps were either an Egyptian model or a Saudi model, but now the old Egyptian model has been destroyed, and it will probably draw closer to the Turkish model. Meanwhile, the Saudi model is going to be more difficult for other Islamic countries to copy.

China’s Role in the Middle East

So, even if there are now three camps, there are really only two models, and they both challenge the hegemony of U.S. in the Middle East. As such, the Middle East will gradually form a "three-camp, two-model competition, undermine U.S. hegemony" strategic pattern. This pattern, in essence, points to Middle Eastern countries' pursuit of independence and the urgency for development in the region. This new strategic plan means that there are many open opportunities for China to improve diplomatic relations with countries in the Middle East. In doing so, China should pay attention to the following:

First, China should maintain the principle of "non-interference", as to respect and support the independence of Middle Eastern countries. As more Middle Eastern countries seek independence from U.S. influence, this will promote a multi-polar Middle East, which will help China gain flexibility on many issues. Also, on the basis of mutual respect for other countries’ independence, China can find more genuine long-term partners.

Second, make "mutual development" the foundation of relations. One of the consequences of the long-term U.S.-Egypt relationship was that Egypt's economic growth and social development became disjointed, and it became dependent on the U.S. to help make up for its own lack of development. China should consider the implications of this situation. Mutual development signifies that China needs to readjust the notion that the Middle East is only a source of energy. China should help Egypt and other countries develop their infrastructure, labor-intensive industries, and agriculture so that it will help these countries to increase jobs, improve the degree of self-sufficiency for food, reduce poverty, and promote comprehensive social and economic development in the Middle East.

Third, China should balance development with the relations of the Arab states, Iran, Turkey and Israel. On this basis, China should focus its foreign affairs on the five regional powers: Egypt and Iran get should get priority, followed next by Turkey while Saudi Arabia and Israel round out the top five.

Fourth, as the majority of the Middle East population is Muslim, hoping that Islam will not play a major role in politics is wishful thinking. As such, it is very necessary for China to establish connections with the religious organization and religious powers that make up the Muslim fraternity. China should regard Al-Jazeera as the representative media power in the Middle East, as it has already demonstrated its influence during the recent changes in the Middle East. China's foreign diplomacy must pay close attention to this as well.
 

Source: sina
 

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Keywords: China Opportunities in the Middle East China and Iran China U.S. policy Middle East Sino-Middle Eastern relations