Editors Note: This article first appeared in the popular weekly Chinese magazine “Outlook”, and was later picked up by ifeng.com (among others) that used it as part of a special report series on the One Child Policy. 

On August 24th, an official report was released which included among other things, a lot of previously released data detailing the increasing problems related to China’s growing “aging population”. This was then picked up by international media, who used the release of this data as another occasion to criticise China’s continued use of the ever-controversial One Child Policy (OCP). In particular, one article called on China to fully relax OCP, as a means to alleviate China's inverse pyramid population structure. The article’s author believed that a mere fine-tuning of OCP through such rules as allowing married couples to have two children if one of the spouses was an only child would not be enough to effectively remedy the aging population problem. In light of the rekindling of these two issues, a journalist from the weekly Chinese publication "Outlook" recently interviewed expert Chinese demographer Zhai Zhenwu:

Outlook: How do you view the recent media coverage regarding adjustments to OCP?

Zhai Zhenwu: China's population problems are very complicated. Simply "looking at the numbers", we sometimes can't see the whole picture. First, I should be clear that a birth rate reduction is an inevitable result of economic and social development, as is the aging population process. China's economy is not yet developed, and due to its use of OCP, the birth rate has declined even faster [than under normal circumstances]. Consequently, we are also facing a growing problem of the population aging.

OCP is not static, and needs to be readjusted according to China's economic and social development. Now that China’s rapid population growth is largely under control, we possess a certain amount of space to adjust the OCP to deal with China’s increasingly large elderly population. However, adjusting OCP will not only help ease the aging population problem, it can also be beneficial to the integrity of family structure, improving the current sex-ratio imbalance as well as fulfilling the wishes of the many Chinese who want another child. Therefore, I support initiating improvements to OCP. However, policy improvements and adjustments should not be done all at once; they must be done step by step.

Outlook: Has the time already come for the One Child Policy to be adjusted?

Zhai Zhenwu: In my opinion, we can start adjusting OCP right now. However, when talking about making policy adjustments to such a large policy, it is first necessary to have ample preparation, discussion and research completed. In the outline for the "12th Five-Year" plan, it clearly states "adherence to the basic national policy of using One Child Policy, and to gradually improve this policy."

We should consider the following factors for adjusting OCP: First, since the current policy was implemented 30 years ago, and China's population growth has since been effectively controlled, there is a certain amount of space for adjustment. Second, as the contradictions of China's population structure are becoming more prominent, it is necessary to make pre-emptive adjustments before they become too serious. Third, adjustments to OCP should be sound, and transitional, to avoid the sudden rises or drops in the population.

Outlook: Compared to 30 years ago, has China's  "human carrying capacity" changed?  

Zhai Zhenwu: During the last 30 years, as land utilisation and grain yields have improved, China's "human carrying capacity" has certainly increased. 30 years ago, China had 1 billion people; today there are 1.3 billion people. Yet, now we have better living standards than before. However, it should be noted that we have made great use of imported foreign resources, such as oil, steel, chemical fertilisers etc.

As the human carrying capacity has increased, we have paid a certain price, which has become more prominent in recent years: grains, vegetables, meat and eggs are produced using excessive amounts of fertilisers, and other food safety issues exist as well. Under this context, in the future, after reaching a zero population growth (China projected peak population is about 1.5 billion) China's population should start a slow, gradual decline. This will ease pressure on the natural environment, help to improve economic development and increase standards of living.

Outlook: How much can OCP relaxation help alleviate the aging population problem?

Zhai Zhenwu: First, to be clear, regardless of OCP, the aging population trend cannot be reversed. Even if every couple in China was allowed to have a second child, it would only alleviate the aging population problem so much. This would only reduce the population-aging rate by 2-3%, from 28% to 25-26%. China's aging population is an inevitable part of world history—when the birth rate declines, a country must go through this process. Many developed countries and newly industrialised countries and regions face this problem such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc.

Outlook: So how should we deal with China's aging population?

Zhai Zhenwu: It will not be resolved simply by “having more children”. The most important thing is improving the Social Security system and the elderly care and support system. Simultaneously, we need to transform the way our economy develops by promoting industrial upgrades, increase labour productivity and turning labour-intensive industries into technology-intensive industries to reduce the workforce.

Outlook: Should we not be concerned that the so-called "demographic dividend" will disappear?

Zhai Zhenwu: Demographic dividend refers to the period of time when country’s population structure is fat in the middle and thin on the ends. We want to take advantage of the demographic dividend while we have it, but after it is gone, the economy will be forced to change, through industrial upgrading and increases in labour productivity etc. The era of staking everything on the size of the population is already long gone. The United States population is only around 300~350 million, but it is a superpower. In total, developed Western countries only have about 770 million in total labour force, yet they are able to create 36 trillion USD in social wealth in a single year. In comparison, the GDP of China's 930 million workers in 2010 was only 6 trillion USD. We cannot rely on the "more children" model to further develop our economy and support economic growth. Rather, we should improve the quality of living for the current population, in order to spur new comparative advantages in future economic development.

Outlook: Looking at China over the next 20 -50 years of development, what is the most ideal population structure?

Zhai Zhenwu: Currently, China's population structure is shaped like an inverted pyramid. At the top of the inverted pyramid is the elderly population, and it is getting bigger every year. And the base of the inverted pyramid, China’s youths, is gradually decreasing. But this is already an inevitability－even if we, right at this moment, adjusted the OCP, it would still not be able to change this population structure. In the 1950s and 1960s, China's population grew so fast, which in turn concretely determined that China's present and future elderly populations would also grow very fast. By around 2040, China will peak at about 400 million elderly people, after which, the elderly population will gradually decrease. This is a natural process. In 40 years, the population structure will surely be better and more stable than it currently is.
 

Source: ifeng.com
 

Related links
Geriatric China
More Kids, More Careers: Relax the One-child Policy?
Catching Up? China's Urban Middle Class Reaches 230 Million

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Keywords: China aging population problem China One Child Policy Chinese demography and One Child Policy China inverse pyramid population structure China adjusting One Child Policy