Editor's note: The following piece was translated and edited from an article that recently appeared on gog.com.cn, as well as on many other Chinese websites. The articled discusses a recent Weibo post from a reputable meteorological source, claiming that China is in store for a massive earthquake (somewhere) by year's end. While many may wish to write this off as scaremongering, with the recent earthquake in southwest China still fresh in people's minds, this new report is leaving everyone feeling uneasy, nonetheless.

Earthquakes have been a hot topic in China since a 5.7 magnitude one struck Yunnanin early September, killing 81 people. On September 19, one Weibo post in particular instantly grabbed the attention of the nation: "China experiences a large-scale 7.0 magnitude earthquake or above, approximately once a year. No earthquake of this magnitude has occurred in the first half of the year, therefore it is very likely that such an earthquake will occur in the second half of the year. However, it is very difficult to predict an exact time and place." In response to the post—which was published on Weibo by the Chinese meteorological weather website, mywtv.cn—the director of the Yunnan Seismological Bureau stated that, unfortunately, there was no error in the website's frightening statement; such a pattern of earthquake activity in China does indeed exist, although there have also been exceptions to this rule in the past.

Are we really doomed?

On June 1 of this year, mywtv.cn aired a special program, in which Li Zhiqiang, researcher at the Institute of Geology of the China Seismological Bureau and ShuaiYifan, Chief Expert of the China Seismological Bureau discussed whether China is able to predict earthquakes and how to efficiently deploy rescue operations. In response to the first question, Shuai did little to assure the concerned public, stating that neither China (nor any other country) can really predict with total certainty the exact time and place of an earthquake [the only time in recorded history that an earthquake has been successfully predicted was in 1973 at Blue Mountain Lake, USA—ed.]. Li Zhiqiang reiterated Shuai's statement that earthquakes cannot be forecast. And just before the program ended, Li Zhiqiang delivered one last blow: "There definitely will be one. There has been no earthquake above 7.0 in China in the first half of the year. The chances of one occurring before the end of the year are huge." A few months after airing, the Weibo post that echoed these statements and startled a nation was promptly deleted just a few hours after appearing online.

Useful or scaremongering?

Despite only circulating around the web for a couple of hours, the damage was already done. Netizens began expressing anger and questioned the value of such a statement. One irritated netizen fired back: "Making such a prediction is like not predicting anything at all. The elders in my village could just as easily say the same!"

As suspicion and anger towards Li Zhiqiang and Shuai Yifan intensified, one journalist made it their mission to determine whether the claim that a 7.0 earthquake occurs annually is even true. According to his/her findings, in the last 100 years, China has annually experienced 30-40 earthquakes over 5.0 magnitude, 4-5 over 6.0 magnitude, 0.6 over 7.0 magnitude and 0.07 over 8.0 magnitude on the Richter Scale. In reality however, these statistics tell us nothing concrete. In 1975 for example, four earthquakes measuring greater than 7.0 shook China, followed by three more 7.0+ earthquakes in 1976. In addition, many of the recorded earthquakes occurred out at sea and not on the actual Mainland.

List of 7.0+ earthquakes in the last decade

Since we've already established that an earthquake may or may not occur this year (depending on Mother Nature's mood), one concrete piece of information that we do have is a list of when and where the most devastating earthquakes have struck in the last decade in China.

7.0+ Scale earthquakes in last decade in China:

When	Where	Scale
March 31, 2002; 06:52:49	Taiwan	7.4
Dec 26, 2006; 12:26:19	Taiwan	7.4
Dec 26, 2006; 12:34:10	Taiwan	7.1
21 Mar, 2008; 06:33:02	Yutian County, Xinjiang	7.3
May 12, 2008; 14:28:04	Wenchuan County, Sichuan	8.0
Apr 14, 2010: 07:49:40	Yushu County, Qinghai	7.1

Ten deadliest earthquakes of the 20th and 21st century

Where	When	Scale	Lives Claimed
Haiyuan, Ningxia Province	1920	7.8	234,117
Dali, Yunnan	1925	7.0	5,000
Gulang, Gansu	1927	7.6	40,900
Diexi, Sichuan	1933	7.5	9,000
Xingtai, Hebei	1966	7.2	8,064
Tonghai, Yunnan	1970	No data	15,621
Zhaotong, Yunnan	1974	6.8	20,000
Tangshan, Hebei	1976	7.5	242,419
Wenchuan, Sichuan	2008	7.9	68,712
Yushu, Qinghai	2010	6.9	2,698

 Source: gog.com.cn

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Keywords: Earthquakes China 7.0 magnitude earthquakes China