China’s High-Speed Rail System: Golden Dragon or White Elephant?

On December 3, 2010, a new world record was set. During tests on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail route, the train reached a speed of 486 kilometers per hour – the fastest ever recorded. When it opens this summer (a year earlier than originally planned) the intercity rail route will slash the journey time between Beijing and Shanghai from ten hours to just four. Along with the recently opened Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed line, it is a symbol of what China’s rail network may one day become: a series of super-fast routes dashing between cities, connecting the nation’s transport hubs and making long distance rail travel an attractive alternative to flying. But the project to extend China’s high-speed rail network is not without its detractors. Many naysayers believe that the expansion will plunge the country into debt instead of elevating its economic power. Fighting the other corner, supporters see environmental advantages to the electric high-speed trains. So who is right? Will the high-speed network prove to be a huge success or a limping failure?

Plans for a widespread high-speed rail network were first mooted in December 1990 when a Beijing to Shanghai fast train was suggested at the National People’s Congress. Four years later, the State Council commissioned a feasibility study, gauging how necessary and economically viable such a route would be. Despite fears in some corners that the high-speed network would be a drain on national funds, the idea was noted in the ninth Five Year Plan (1996-2000) and construction was earmarked for 2008. Meanwhile, the “Speed Up” campaigns continued.

Unnecessary and unwanted?

Many opponents of China’s new wave of high-speed rail construction cite the Speed Up scheme as proof that vast sums of money could have been saved by simply revamping existing lines. In 1993, the average speed of a commercial passenger train was 48 kilometers per hour, making long distance rail travel a poor alternative to flying or driving. Over the next 14 years, improvements and modernizations were made to tracks, upping the average speed of a passenger train to 70 kilometers per hour. The six Speed Up campaigns that ran between 1993 and 2007 gave the network 846 kilometers of track suitable for speeds of 250 km/h, 6,009 kilometers for speeds of 200 km/h, and 14,000 kilometers for speeds of 160 km/h. Speed capacity was increased on 29% of China’s rail network. 52 new high-speed CRH trains were added to the existing passenger stock, cutting the journey time between Beijing and Shanghai to the current 10 hours. Challengers of the new high-speed plans use this as proof that a brand new network is unnecessary. 

Questions have been raised as to passenger uptake on the new network. Does paying more to cover distance faster necessarily appeal to the majority of Chinese travelers? As has been proven already on the Wuhan-Guangzhou and Zhengzhou-Xi’an routes, customers would rather save money than time. Moreover, a long overnight journey is often preferable to a four- or five-hour daytime journey. Statistics from Japan suggest that high-speed rail is preferable to air travel for journeys over 1,000 kilometers, while rail comes into its own for trips under 500 kilometers. Worrying losses on the Beijing-Tianjin Intercity line suggest that rail users prefer to pay less and sacrifice speed even on short trips. The route cost 21.55 billion RMB to construct, and has never run at the passenger capacity that would break even, let alone make a profit. The debt ratio of the Ministry of Railways rose to 52% in 2009, up from 40% in 2007, suggesting that all is not well on the networks.

In a reader poll published on November 11, 2010 in China Daily, 38% of respondents were against the expansion of the high-speed rail network, while 62% were in favor. Opinion is similarly divided among experts, such as Professor Zhao Jian of the Northern Transport University. Writing in China Daily in April 2010, he claimed that the scheme could push China into debt.

“Despite voices of dissent, China’s new high-speed rail network is going ahead. Currently, the main routes run between Beijing and Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou, Zhengzhou and Xi’an, and Shanghai and Hangzhou. The government’s economic stimulus program means that 17,000 kilometers of high-speed lines are now being built. By 2012 the high-speed rail network will measure 13,000 kilometers, rising to 16,000 kilometers by 2020. The early completion of the Beijing-Shanghai route will be a source of pride, and a boost to the public image of high-speed rail travel. Whether it proves to be a thorn in the side of the economy or a trailblazing totem is still unclear.”

Supporters, however, are quick to point out that a new network of routes will free up existing tracks for freight. This will aid passage of goods for trade, and further improve the economy. Electric trains are less environmentally harmful than those powered by diesel (although critics are keen to point out that electricity generation uses unsustainable energy sources), and more people traveling by train will mean fewer on airplanes. The International Union of Railways states that high-speed trains can carry eight times as many passengers as airplanes over the same distance, using the same amount of energy but producing only a quarter of the carbon dioxide.
 

Related links
Chinese Academy of Sciences: High-Speed Rail Construction Unsustainable
The Adventures of Train Travel in China
Multiple High-speed Rails Will be Completed Across China in 2011